Exclusive: Carlos Spencer Tips Springboks as Clear Favourites for 2025 Rugby Championship

As the dust settles on the global mid-year test window, rugby fans now shift their focus to the 2025 edition of the Rugby Championship, and former All Blacks flyhalf Carlos Spencer believes there’s one clear favourite heading into the tournament: South Africa.

Each of the southern hemisphere giants comes into the Championship with mixed form and varied preparations, following a series of incoming Tests. Spencer, a long-time student of the game and former international star, weighed in on each side’s recent performances and the road ahead.

Argentina: Unpredictable But Unpolished

Los Pumas stunned the rugby world by beating a new-look British and Irish Lions team 28–24 in Dublin, marking a historic win on northern soil. However, they followed that up with a 2-0 series defeat at home to a weakened England side, raising concerns about consistency.

“You never know with Argentina,” Spencer noted. 

“They’re like the French from 10 or 15 years ago. On their day, they can beat anyone. But they’ll struggle away from home.”

Australia: Building, but Already Dangerous

The Wallabies were centre stage during the Lions tour of Australia, which they narrowly lost 2-1. Under outgoing coach Joe Schmidt, the Aussies showed serious fight, particularly in their dominant third Test win. Now, with Les Kiss preparing to take over, they seem poised for a resurgence.

“The Wallabies looked sharp, especially in the last two Tests,” Spencer said. 

“Their prep coming into the Rugby Championship has been solid. They’ll be dangerous.”

New Zealand: Unbeaten but Unconvincing

The All Blacks completed a clean sweep of France in a 3-0 series win but the visitors were without their top players due to Top 14 playoff commitments. Despite the results, Spencer feels the All Blacks may not have had the ideal lead-up to facing the Springboks.

“It wasn’t the strongest French side, and we struggled at times in the series,” he admitted. 

“But the All Blacks and Springboks rivalry is always electric. Eden Park will be buzzing.”

The clash against South Africa will take place at Eden Park, where New Zealand hasn’t lost a Test in more than three decades, a staggering 50 matches unbeaten, with only two draws.

South Africa: The Favourites for a Reason

The Springboks come into the Rugby Championship as unbeaten in 2025, following a commanding 2-0 series win over Italy and a 55–10 victory against Georgia. The defending World Champions remain formidable, even as they continue to experiment with squad depth.

“I’ve got the Springboks as favourites. They’re number one in the world for a reason. They’re the team to beat," Spencer told SportsBoom.co.za. 

South Africa has used over 40 players this season, a clear sign of their depth and strategic squad rotation ahead of a grueling international calendar.

The Overseas Player Debate: A Blueprint from SA?

South Africa’s model of selecting players from overseas has proven highly effective, with Springbok stars competing in Europe and Japan while remaining eligible for national duty. Rugby Australia has followed suit, scrapping the “Giteau Law” this week to open the door for foreign-based Wallabies.

Should New Zealand be next?

With players like Richie Mo’unga and Shannon Frizzell now abroad, the question is more relevant than ever.

“That debate’s always floating around,” Spencer said. “Do we allow top-tier players to go overseas and still play for the All Blacks? It’s tricky.”

“We’re already struggling to get bums on seats here. If we lose our stars in Super Rugby, what happens to our crowds?”

Spencer remains undecided but acknowledges both the pros and cons.

“It’s a tough one, and I’m on the fence. You’ve got to do what’s best for New Zealand Rugby, not just for the All Blacks jersey.”