New Manager Bounce in Betting: Myth or Smart Strategy?

So, when an underperforming manager is shown the door, some fans are convinced that the team’s woes are behind them, but others expect very little to change. Instead of relying on feelings, I decided to dig into the data and see what the stats really tell us about the impact of a new manager and whether or not it’s a statistical anomaly. 

What Is the New Manager Bounce?

The new manager bounce is the improvement in results that a team sometimes shows in the games immediately following a managerial change. It's the idea that a fresh face in the new standards can jolt a squad out of a slump and put points on the board quickly. 

While there is a lack of PSL data, EPL stats do broadly support that it's a real phenomenon. The Premier League's own analysis, using Opta data, found that since the 2021/22 season, 35 mid-season permanent appointments were made in the top flight. Across their first five league games, the agreed "bounce window", those managers averaged 1.27 points per game. The same clubs were averaging just 0.90 PPG under the sacked boss. That's a 41% uplift. 

Looking back further, a separate Premier League study covering 2017/18 to 2020/21 found that across 26 managerial changes, 20 of the new managers averaged more points per match in their first five games than their predecessors in nearly 77% of cases. So the bounce is real, but it is not guaranteed, and the sample size isn’t massive.

The Best Bounces in Recent Memory

Cardoso took over the Sundowns in December 2024 and immediately made an impact, guiding them to win against Raja Casablanca in the CAF Champions League. ^[1] The bounce continued as the Sundowns won three PSL matches in a row before losing the second CAF leg to Raja Casablanca.
Interestingly, Cardoso’s bounce didn’t fade as the Portuguese manager led the Sundowns to a PSL title and to the CAF Champions League final, but a lot of that has to do with the talented side he inherited.

The Kaizer Chiefs in 2024/2025 under Nasreddine Nabi experienced more of a classic new manager bounce. ^[2] The Tunisian came in, and immediately the Chiefs started winning, beating Gallumo Gallants and AmaZulu. However, after losing to the Sundowns on Matchday 4, the Chiefs struggled. Ultimately, Nadi was fired at the end of the season after winning just 8 matches! 

Following Nabi’s departure, the Chiefs promoted his two assistants, Khalil Ben Youssef and Cedric Kaze, to co-head coach, and the side once again enjoyed a new manager bounce, winning 4 of their first 5 PSL games before suffering back-to-back defeats to Sekhukhune and Kabuscorp, which played a factor in the pair leaving at the end of the season. ^[3]

Why Does the Bounce Happen?

Players often want to impress the new manager, as every player's position is suddenly up for grabs again. The fringe player who was frozen out sees opportunity, while the star who had a falling out with the old boss gets a clean slate. That instinct to perform, to make an impression, is enormously powerful, and it shows up in the numbers. 

It also takes the opposition time to adjust to the team’s new style. In the first few games, opponents don't have a detailed scouting report on the new tactics. That element of surprise can take a few games for opponents to decode.

A dressing room that was fractured or deflated under a sacked manager often experiences a psychological reset. The burden of a losing run lifts, at least temporarily thanks to the motivation factor. 

Why It Almost Always Fades

Simon Kuper and Professor Stefan Szymanski argue that the new manager bounce is largely regression to the mean. A club typically sacks its manager when the team is averaging around 1.0 PPG, a low point. Statistically, from any low point, performance is likely to improve, regardless of whether you change the manager, the tactics, or the brand of pre-match tea. ^[4]

This is backed by Dutch academic Bas ter Weel, whose 18-season study of the Eredivisie found the same pattern of prior decline followed by post-sacking improvement, whether or not the manager himself was actually responsible.

Nabi’s start at Kaizer Chiefs was extraordinary, with 4 wins from 5 matches, but his tenure ended after the 2024/2025 season, as the Chiefs ended up in 9th place.

Also, often the bounce simply never appears or is delayed. Just look at what happened when Abdeslam Ouaddou took over at the Orlando Pirates in 2025. He lost two games in a row and was considering resigning, but the team eventually found their groove and ended up winning the league.