How Do VAR Decisions Affect Exchange Bets?

However, there is a twist in the tale: the VAR confirms an attacker was offside in the build-up and the goal is chalked off, although the market has already reacted to the score. This hypothetical example emphasises how, in exchange betting for South African players, VAR decisions can change results and also have an effect on whether bets stand at all.

What is exchange betting in a local context?

Exchange betting allows players to either be the bettor or the bookmaker, and involves two distinct actions:

• Backing: This is where the bettor picks odds and their stake based on an outcome they believe will happen. If the bet wins, they receive the stake, and if the bet loses, their stake is lost as well
• Laying: This means betting against an outcome, such as believing a team will lose a game. If the team does lose, the bettor receives the stake, and if the team wins, they must cover liability

Since the lay bet allows players to be bookmakers, losing a bet means taking on the liability of other bettors’ stakes and can be a significant risk factor. Exchange betting also introduces matched bets, where the backer and layer agree on the price, or unmatched bets, where there is no price agreement.

A platform known as the ‘exchange’ sets results and secures funds, usually for a small commission taken as a percentage of the net winnings. Compared to traditional forms of betting, at fixed odds, exchange betting can be influenced by a team scoring, even if the VAR later finds otherwise.

VAR decisions and the influence on exchange betting

The International Soccer Association Board ^[1] explains that the VAR protocol is meant to adhere to the ethos of the Laws of the Game, allowing for match officials to assist the referee in the event of a ‘clear and obvious error’ or ‘serious missed incident’.

This protocol applies to whether a goal has been scored, whether a penalty should be awarded, whether a red card should be shown, or whether the wrong player has been cautioned or sent off by the referee.

While the VAR protocol is meant to add fairness to decisions in theory, it also results in delays between an incident (such as a goal) and receiving confirmation, as play often continues before the review is triggered.

The lag between a goal being scored, for example, and the final VAR decision creates a window of uncertainty, and exchange users must understand that a bet being matched does not necessarily mean it will stand.

Understanding how VAR decisions affect exchange betting markets

To understand the impact of VAR calls on exchange betting, specific concepts need to be understood:

A market suspension is when a bookmaker pauses new bets or adjustments on a match, and is typically triggered in soccer by a goal, red card, or penalty kick. A common misconception in exchange betting is that once a market has been suspended, a bettor is protected.

However, bets may be matched before the market is suspended, and these bets may still stand even if the VAR overturns a decision. Using the same hypothetical example of a goal being chalked off during an EPL game, a bet matched just before the final decision can be valid yet incorrect.

Liquidity also thins due to VAR involvement, resulting in sharp price jumps once the market reopens, which can leave traders facing a big loss. While South African exchange bettors may believe that a bet being matched gives them a level of certainty, the outcome is still based on probability.

Also, any betting should exist within the regulatory structures of the National Gambling Board ^[2] and the licensing of any of the provincial gambling boards.